Monthly Commentary

[rogerklam]

No report until Fall

[rogerklam]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-i ... e=homepage

Taiwan enters recession on weak worldwide demand for its electronics

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-bus ... e=homepage

Tesla might lose ground to local pretenders, as likes of Xpeng, BYD steal a march with made-for-China EVs

https://asiatimes.com/2023/05/us-tech-w ... computing/

US tech war opens fire on China’s cloud computing
US lawmakers baying wildly for new Commerce Dept sanctions on Huawei, Alibaba and other Chinese cloud service providers

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 023-05-01/

First Republic collapse sparks regional bank shares sell-off

It is more like a bottoming process. JMHO

https://www.financialexpress.com/busine ... y-3070356/

Fed’s Rate Hike Decision: Market expectations from next FOMC meeting on Wednesday

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65452444

Debt ceiling: Janet Yellen warns US could run out of cash by 1 June

5-01-2023
7:33 PM

I am still a bear and waiting for the next shoe to drop. $VIX, $USD at major support. $CDNX is still under resistance with IWM still above support. KRE is still in bottoming process and I do not anticipate it will break down from the support line. NVDA is challenging 2021 top. It is better to wait till the dust settle before considering any long positions. JMHO

[rogerklam]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/31/stocks- ... ourse.html

CNBC Pro Stocks could be shaky in the week ahead as sigh-of-relief rally runs its course

I am not a subscriber and I won't be able to see the content but I can guess.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Fear and Greed index at neutral

4-2-2023
8:56 AM

With the debt ceiling crisis is coming, I am bearish with the markets and waiting for the next shoe to drop . The markets always act violent upon the turning point. How low can $VIX go ?

(A) Gold
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... update-231

Many charts are at potential double top. Of course it would be potential cup and handle pattern. Just be cautious moving forward. JMHO

(B) Other charts.

[rogerklam]

Greed and Fear index - at neutral
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed


4-1-2023
8:32 AM
Last month Bitcoin and PM stocks are doing very well while Bank and Weed stocks are the worst performance. Sector rotation is pretty quick these days.
Monthly performance :

[rogerklam]

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... e=homepage

West vs the rest: as Ukraine war rift grows, peace must be the priority

https://www.scmp.com/native/business/ba ... e=homepage

Global financial activities see gravity shift from Western hubs towards Asia

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/03/amazon- ... ginia.html

Amazon pauses construction of second headquarters in Virginia

3-05-2023
3:45 PM
The fundamentals are still not very good. With low liquid in the stock markets and the increase usage of short term options, one has to be careful. It is a traders' markets. Last Friday, every sectors are up with SPX bounce above 200D MA but for how long ? The debt ceiling crisis is coming around the corner. I am still a bear and invest lightly in this environment.

$VIX - is consolidating sideway, it is very difficult to trade in this environment.




I am still bullish in the China stock, FXI chart is bullish with a potential H&S pattern.



$USD short term potential cling on along the resistance line, one cannot be too bearish unless it breaks the support line



$CDNX is still in triangular pattern, potential high rewarding once it breaks out from the triangle. This is a weekly chart, so it may take a while.

[rogerklam]

Monthly performance - winners are tough to find with kweb, mj, silj, gdxj the worst performance.

[rogerklam]

https://tsi-blog.com/2023/01/a-false-upside-breakout/

A false upside breakout?

https://allstarcharts.com/welcome-to-the-beta-chase/

Welcome To The Beta Chase

https://asiatimes.com/2023/02/china-ban ... hnologies/

China bans export of core solar panel technologies
Reverse Golden Rule – Treat others as they’ve treated you – is meant to keep lead status in making large silicons

$VIX and $USD are very close to reverse while many sectors are breaking out. Small caps and high beta stocks are doing very well.
I think this is just a sucker rally and I am still a bear and anticipate a global recession. I would be wrong but I am earning a modest 5% with my cash.

[rogerklam]

(A) One Month performance



(B) One Week performance

[rogerklam]

https://mottcapitalmanagement.com/7-mon ... 3-edition/

7 MONSTER STOCK MARKET PREDICTIONS – THE WEEK OF JANUARY 3, 2023 EDITION

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle- ... e=homepage

Dubai ends hefty alcohol tax to boost business, tourism

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/tra ... e=homepage

A new way to fly? Hong Kong ready to commit to long-term expansion of Zhuhai airport for passengers, cargo and new aviation park

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1283066.shtml

China gets off to a good start with new year tourism rebound, boosts market confidence for 2023 economic recovery

(A) USD and VIX

I am a bear and I am bias towards a global recession. With 5% interest with my cash and US QT, the reward has to be good before I consider to invest. US$ may bounce any time and $VIX may spike any time.





(B) China stocks - many stocks are breaking out and the bounce continue







(C) Weed stocks - Not seeing the bottom yet but a bounce may be near.





(D) $HUI - you can refer the analysis from here
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... update-218



(E) Weat - constructive chart

[rogerklam]

Happy New Year to all

https://twitter.com/hsilverb/status/1609239076682563584

$SPX total return contributions for December & 2022

Indexes and ETFs that I am tracking

(A) YTD performance - The weed stocks, ARKK and online retailers are the worst performance last year, losing more than 50%. Turkey and Energy stocks are the winners and gaining more than 50%.







(B) Monthly best performance. There was no X'mas rally last year and there were more losers than winners last month.



(C) Monthly worst performance



(D) Weekly best performance - no outstanding winners and last week was quite neutral.



...to be continue

[rogerklam]

https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/statu ... 0354287616

Here is 2008 vs. 2022 #sp500 update. The green line is the version we have been tracking since mid-October. The yellow is the original version I started tracking in the late spring. There is a 12-day difference between the two. Both suggest the relationship is on shaky ground.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/12/imf-forci ... sri-lanka/

IMF forcing privatization, land and resource grab on Sri Lanka
The land, the ports and the state enterprises do not belong to politicians but to the people and to future generations

The Western debt trap, I feel sorry for the people of Sri Lanka

https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/the-g20s- ... ing-words/

The G20’s Balinese dance and Biden’s calming words
Xi has few reasons to take Biden – rather, the combo writing every script in the background – at face value

12-03-2022
5:57 PM

Part 2 of 2

I am still expecting a global recession. You can trade the markets but don't get marry to them and get ready to divorce. With 5% interest rate, it is better to be late and catch the next train but be sure you are not catching the opposite direction. The US markets are quite overvalue while profit margin is decreasing, I will reduce my US long positions before the earning season. QE is not going to happen in the first quarter of next year and US has a debt ceiling problem early next year and the continuation de-couple from the non friendly countries. The oil price cap on Russian oil by the G7 is just ridiculous and accelerate the non friendly nations to decouple from the West. The West already declare war on all the non friendly nations. JMHO

$VIX and $USD are still heading lower but I think they are close to interim bottom. $VIX will spike anytime and $USD will reverse anytime. JMHO
Are we going to have a X'mas rally ? Of course I do not know the answer. If in doubt I hit the sell button and short the market.

I am not going to prepare too many charts. $USD is at support line while SPY at resistance. $VIX heads in the strong support channels while IWM broke out from the resistance. If you work hard enough there are always stocks to short or long. I am using a long/short strategy. Short the stocks with limited upside potential and long stocks with great upside potential. If stocks are at all times high with a spinning top, you can short them or vice versa. I only invest what I can afford to lose. It would be a long stagflation period.

[rogerklam]

https://mjbizdaily.com/marijuana-bankin ... -congress/

Marijuana banking among reforms on the table in upcoming lame-duck Congress

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/bei ... 022-12-03/

Beijing, Shenzhen loosen more COVID curbs as China fine-tunes policy

China may re-open its border soon, JMHO

12-03-2022
10:14 AM
Part 1 of 2

(A) Performance
The PM stocks are the best performance on a monthly basis but start losing momentum and catch up by China stocks and Weed stocks. The Shanghai index bounces from support while weed stocks start to break out. Solar stocks Friday were doing also great. Depressed stocks are doing great lately.
Solar stocks are still in triangle consolidation while $HUI is close to resistance (200WK MA). Vietnam is doing a potential V shape recovery











(1) Daily performance - partial list



(2) Weekly performance - partial list



(3) Monthly performance - full list

[rogerklam]

https://time.com/6221771/stagflation-cr ... l-roubini/

We're Heading for a Stagflationary Crisis Unlike Anything We've Ever Seen

Making matters worse, renewed protectionism (from both the left and the right) has restricted trade and the movement of capital. Political tensions, both within and between countries, are driving a process of reshoring. Political resistance to immigration has curtailed the global movement of people, putting additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and information.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-canada

Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March

The route to the new peak includes increases of 75 basis points this week, 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points in February and March, they said.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/morgan-stan ... -1.1839424

Morgan Stanley's Wilson says end of Fed tightening nearing

https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-chip-b ... -on-china/

US chip ban de facto declaration of war on China?

https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-will-s ... ntum-leap/

US will struggle to stop China’s quantum leap

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article ... e=homepage

US’ hard-line policy on China likely to hold whoever wins midterm elections, say analysts

10-31-2022
7:38 pm

Fed date is 2nd Nov (Wed.) and US midterm election is 8th Nov.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA13AAk4

When are the midterm elections 2022?

After this Wed, the Fed will slow down raising interest rate. Most likely after the US mid term election, we may be seeing the end of the war pretty soon. I am assuming the Republicans at least get the house. However the decoupling from the unfriendly countries is still going on. With a high interest rate, balkanization of the global economy and possibly pandemic this coming winter, it is difficult to be bullish. However the capital loss season is right around the corner, it may be worth to put in some capital for the distress stocks.

(A) $VIX, $USD, Bond Volatility index

DOJI seems to suggest $USD is close to the peak, but it may possibly retest for 2 more times. The support for $VIX is at 22 (gap), so this will be a good spot to short the markets. The bond volatility index is still spiking and how high is high ?







(B) Small Caps

Still a bounce within a bear market. IWM at lower highs while $CDNX at lower lows.





(C) FXI

It is still falling but look very attractive. I guess the time to go long is when China ease of its covid-19 policies. JMHO

[rogerklam]

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Crash- ... er-27-2022

Crash Watch Becomes Crash Warning

As you likely know, the old adage is "don't fight the Fed", so when the Fed tells you that they intend to “inflict losses” and “cause pain”, you should probably take their word for it.

Could it be a swift move through 4.00% on the U.S. ten-year treasury note that does the trick? So far, the markets have been able to shrug off higher nominal rates, but you may recall that it only took a move to 3.25% in 2018 before equity disaster struck. Perhaps a ten-year yield above 4.00% would be a bridge too far this time? Perhaps. Either way, I think we're about to find out.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politic ... e=homepage

Chinese President Xi Jinping warns Communist Party to prepare for ‘great struggles’ ahead

10-02-2022
2:39 PM

(A) US dollar

It is a currency war out there, US$ is winning against all other currencies by wide margin and capitals are flowing back to the US. Now the world is at the mercy of the Fed. I stay bullish on the dollar until the Fed changes its tone from hawkish to dovish. I am anticipate $CAD, $AUD will break the major support while the dollar will reach the double top. Anything can happen before the US mid term election.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/us ... r-AA122DqI

US midterm elections: When are the US midterm elections, how do they work and will they impact President Biden and the 2024 election?

(B) The Markets

With a prolong proxy war, terrorism acts in the proxy war, unprecedent censors against the non friendly countries, supply chain problem, decoupling from unfriendly nations, energy crisis in Europe, high inflation, civil unrest, covid 19, global recession .... and a high interest rate, the most safe asset is cash earning 4+% a year. Gov't are taking unprecedent extreme actions and are they working ?

Anyway I am anticipating a final capitulation before the bulls return. Investors are still recalling the pains they suffered 2020.











(C) Area of interest

Weat

[rogerklam]

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 2.25% - 2.50%, to at least 2.75% - 3.00%, at the September 21 ST, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 6.00%, with the possibility of an increase to 6.25%.

http://primerate.fedprimerate.com/2022/ ... %206.25%25.

(A) General markets
First downside target:
IWM 162.78 (2022 low)
SMH- 189.94 (2022 low)
QQQ - 268.76 (2022 low)
SPY - 200WK MA
$TSX - 18169 (2022 low)

The markets in general are lacking liquidity and the bear continue.

Markets should be very volatile going into Sept. 3rd Friday (Triple witching) and 21st Sept.(FOMC)











(B) Area of interest

U stocks are very attractive and the weekly chart is quite constructive.
$HUI is approaching major support.
MSOS appears bottom at 10.08
Weat is at a long term round bottom pattern
FXI may have bottomed at 26.02 with capitulation volume
Many stocks are deeply depressed and appear in the basing process.