Monthly Commentary

[rogerklam]

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... e=homepage

West vs the rest: as Ukraine war rift grows, peace must be the priority

https://www.scmp.com/native/business/ba ... e=homepage

Global financial activities see gravity shift from Western hubs towards Asia

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/03/amazon- ... ginia.html

Amazon pauses construction of second headquarters in Virginia

3-05-2023
3:45 PM
The fundamentals are still not very good. With low liquid in the stock markets and the increase usage of short term options, one has to be careful. It is a traders' markets. Last Friday, every sectors are up with SPX bounce above 200D MA but for how long ? The debt ceiling crisis is coming around the corner. I am still a bear and invest lightly in this environment.

$VIX - is consolidating sideway, it is very difficult to trade in this environment.




I am still bullish in the China stock, FXI chart is bullish with a potential H&S pattern.



$USD short term potential cling on along the resistance line, one cannot be too bearish unless it breaks the support line



$CDNX is still in triangular pattern, potential high rewarding once it breaks out from the triangle. This is a weekly chart, so it may take a while.

[rogerklam]

Monthly performance - winners are tough to find with kweb, mj, silj, gdxj the worst performance.

[rogerklam]

https://tsi-blog.com/2023/01/a-false-upside-breakout/

A false upside breakout?

https://allstarcharts.com/welcome-to-the-beta-chase/

Welcome To The Beta Chase

https://asiatimes.com/2023/02/china-ban ... hnologies/

China bans export of core solar panel technologies
Reverse Golden Rule – Treat others as they’ve treated you – is meant to keep lead status in making large silicons

$VIX and $USD are very close to reverse while many sectors are breaking out. Small caps and high beta stocks are doing very well.
I think this is just a sucker rally and I am still a bear and anticipate a global recession. I would be wrong but I am earning a modest 5% with my cash.

[rogerklam]

(A) One Month performance



(B) One Week performance

[rogerklam]

https://mottcapitalmanagement.com/7-mon ... 3-edition/

7 MONSTER STOCK MARKET PREDICTIONS – THE WEEK OF JANUARY 3, 2023 EDITION

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle- ... e=homepage

Dubai ends hefty alcohol tax to boost business, tourism

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/tra ... e=homepage

A new way to fly? Hong Kong ready to commit to long-term expansion of Zhuhai airport for passengers, cargo and new aviation park

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1283066.shtml

China gets off to a good start with new year tourism rebound, boosts market confidence for 2023 economic recovery

(A) USD and VIX

I am a bear and I am bias towards a global recession. With 5% interest with my cash and US QT, the reward has to be good before I consider to invest. US$ may bounce any time and $VIX may spike any time.





(B) China stocks - many stocks are breaking out and the bounce continue







(C) Weed stocks - Not seeing the bottom yet but a bounce may be near.





(D) $HUI - you can refer the analysis from here
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... update-218



(E) Weat - constructive chart

[rogerklam]

Happy New Year to all

https://twitter.com/hsilverb/status/1609239076682563584

$SPX total return contributions for December & 2022

Indexes and ETFs that I am tracking

(A) YTD performance - The weed stocks, ARKK and online retailers are the worst performance last year, losing more than 50%. Turkey and Energy stocks are the winners and gaining more than 50%.







(B) Monthly best performance. There was no X'mas rally last year and there were more losers than winners last month.



(C) Monthly worst performance



(D) Weekly best performance - no outstanding winners and last week was quite neutral.



...to be continue

[rogerklam]

https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/statu ... 0354287616

Here is 2008 vs. 2022 #sp500 update. The green line is the version we have been tracking since mid-October. The yellow is the original version I started tracking in the late spring. There is a 12-day difference between the two. Both suggest the relationship is on shaky ground.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/12/imf-forci ... sri-lanka/

IMF forcing privatization, land and resource grab on Sri Lanka
The land, the ports and the state enterprises do not belong to politicians but to the people and to future generations

The Western debt trap, I feel sorry for the people of Sri Lanka

https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/the-g20s- ... ing-words/

The G20’s Balinese dance and Biden’s calming words
Xi has few reasons to take Biden – rather, the combo writing every script in the background – at face value

12-03-2022
5:57 PM

Part 2 of 2

I am still expecting a global recession. You can trade the markets but don't get marry to them and get ready to divorce. With 5% interest rate, it is better to be late and catch the next train but be sure you are not catching the opposite direction. The US markets are quite overvalue while profit margin is decreasing, I will reduce my US long positions before the earning season. QE is not going to happen in the first quarter of next year and US has a debt ceiling problem early next year and the continuation de-couple from the non friendly countries. The oil price cap on Russian oil by the G7 is just ridiculous and accelerate the non friendly nations to decouple from the West. The West already declare war on all the non friendly nations. JMHO

$VIX and $USD are still heading lower but I think they are close to interim bottom. $VIX will spike anytime and $USD will reverse anytime. JMHO
Are we going to have a X'mas rally ? Of course I do not know the answer. If in doubt I hit the sell button and short the market.

I am not going to prepare too many charts. $USD is at support line while SPY at resistance. $VIX heads in the strong support channels while IWM broke out from the resistance. If you work hard enough there are always stocks to short or long. I am using a long/short strategy. Short the stocks with limited upside potential and long stocks with great upside potential. If stocks are at all times high with a spinning top, you can short them or vice versa. I only invest what I can afford to lose. It would be a long stagflation period.

[rogerklam]

https://mjbizdaily.com/marijuana-bankin ... -congress/

Marijuana banking among reforms on the table in upcoming lame-duck Congress

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/bei ... 022-12-03/

Beijing, Shenzhen loosen more COVID curbs as China fine-tunes policy

China may re-open its border soon, JMHO

12-03-2022
10:14 AM
Part 1 of 2

(A) Performance
The PM stocks are the best performance on a monthly basis but start losing momentum and catch up by China stocks and Weed stocks. The Shanghai index bounces from support while weed stocks start to break out. Solar stocks Friday were doing also great. Depressed stocks are doing great lately.
Solar stocks are still in triangle consolidation while $HUI is close to resistance (200WK MA). Vietnam is doing a potential V shape recovery











(1) Daily performance - partial list



(2) Weekly performance - partial list



(3) Monthly performance - full list

[rogerklam]

https://time.com/6221771/stagflation-cr ... l-roubini/

We're Heading for a Stagflationary Crisis Unlike Anything We've Ever Seen

Making matters worse, renewed protectionism (from both the left and the right) has restricted trade and the movement of capital. Political tensions, both within and between countries, are driving a process of reshoring. Political resistance to immigration has curtailed the global movement of people, putting additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and information.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-canada

Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March

The route to the new peak includes increases of 75 basis points this week, 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points in February and March, they said.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/morgan-stan ... -1.1839424

Morgan Stanley's Wilson says end of Fed tightening nearing

https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-chip-b ... -on-china/

US chip ban de facto declaration of war on China?

https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-will-s ... ntum-leap/

US will struggle to stop China’s quantum leap

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article ... e=homepage

US’ hard-line policy on China likely to hold whoever wins midterm elections, say analysts

10-31-2022
7:38 pm

Fed date is 2nd Nov (Wed.) and US midterm election is 8th Nov.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA13AAk4

When are the midterm elections 2022?

After this Wed, the Fed will slow down raising interest rate. Most likely after the US mid term election, we may be seeing the end of the war pretty soon. I am assuming the Republicans at least get the house. However the decoupling from the unfriendly countries is still going on. With a high interest rate, balkanization of the global economy and possibly pandemic this coming winter, it is difficult to be bullish. However the capital loss season is right around the corner, it may be worth to put in some capital for the distress stocks.

(A) $VIX, $USD, Bond Volatility index

DOJI seems to suggest $USD is close to the peak, but it may possibly retest for 2 more times. The support for $VIX is at 22 (gap), so this will be a good spot to short the markets. The bond volatility index is still spiking and how high is high ?







(B) Small Caps

Still a bounce within a bear market. IWM at lower highs while $CDNX at lower lows.





(C) FXI

It is still falling but look very attractive. I guess the time to go long is when China ease of its covid-19 policies. JMHO

[rogerklam]

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Crash- ... er-27-2022

Crash Watch Becomes Crash Warning

As you likely know, the old adage is "don't fight the Fed", so when the Fed tells you that they intend to “inflict losses” and “cause pain”, you should probably take their word for it.

Could it be a swift move through 4.00% on the U.S. ten-year treasury note that does the trick? So far, the markets have been able to shrug off higher nominal rates, but you may recall that it only took a move to 3.25% in 2018 before equity disaster struck. Perhaps a ten-year yield above 4.00% would be a bridge too far this time? Perhaps. Either way, I think we're about to find out.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politic ... e=homepage

Chinese President Xi Jinping warns Communist Party to prepare for ‘great struggles’ ahead

10-02-2022
2:39 PM

(A) US dollar

It is a currency war out there, US$ is winning against all other currencies by wide margin and capitals are flowing back to the US. Now the world is at the mercy of the Fed. I stay bullish on the dollar until the Fed changes its tone from hawkish to dovish. I am anticipate $CAD, $AUD will break the major support while the dollar will reach the double top. Anything can happen before the US mid term election.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/us ... r-AA122DqI

US midterm elections: When are the US midterm elections, how do they work and will they impact President Biden and the 2024 election?

(B) The Markets

With a prolong proxy war, terrorism acts in the proxy war, unprecedent censors against the non friendly countries, supply chain problem, decoupling from unfriendly nations, energy crisis in Europe, high inflation, civil unrest, covid 19, global recession .... and a high interest rate, the most safe asset is cash earning 4+% a year. Gov't are taking unprecedent extreme actions and are they working ?

Anyway I am anticipating a final capitulation before the bulls return. Investors are still recalling the pains they suffered 2020.











(C) Area of interest

Weat

[rogerklam]

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 2.25% - 2.50%, to at least 2.75% - 3.00%, at the September 21 ST, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 6.00%, with the possibility of an increase to 6.25%.

http://primerate.fedprimerate.com/2022/ ... %206.25%25.

(A) General markets
First downside target:
IWM 162.78 (2022 low)
SMH- 189.94 (2022 low)
QQQ - 268.76 (2022 low)
SPY - 200WK MA
$TSX - 18169 (2022 low)

The markets in general are lacking liquidity and the bear continue.

Markets should be very volatile going into Sept. 3rd Friday (Triple witching) and 21st Sept.(FOMC)











(B) Area of interest

U stocks are very attractive and the weekly chart is quite constructive.
$HUI is approaching major support.
MSOS appears bottom at 10.08
Weat is at a long term round bottom pattern
FXI may have bottomed at 26.02 with capitulation volume
Many stocks are deeply depressed and appear in the basing process.

[rogerklam]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -joe-biden

Democrats are certain to lose seats in the midterms. But how many – and why?
Musa al-Gharbi

https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-wors ... ns-1722543

Democrats' Worst Case Scenario for the Midterms

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/ ... e=homepage

Lebanon seizes ship carrying ‘stolen’ Ukrainian grain

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... e=homepage

China has nuclear power lead and should sell to the developed world, policy researcher says

https://interestingengineering.com/scie ... o-the-grid

China Powers Up the World’s First Commercial Onshore Small Modular Nuclear Reactor

https://forum.mexicomike.ca/viewtopic.p ... dn#p240249

by Bobwins » Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:57 pm

I recently got interested in Uranium again. It blasted off in late 2020 without me. The U stocks faded this year so about a month ago I bought UUUU, URNM, UEC and LEU. I also bought smaller positions in GLATF and BSENF. I did so after reviewing a bunch of youtube videos presented the bull case for uranium. Obviously the war in Ukraine has turned a spotlight on energy and Uranium is becoming a pretty big part of the story.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... update-196

Summary

Long term – on SELL signal.

Short term – on mixed signals.

Gold sector cycle is UP.

Fear and Greed Index
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

07-31-2022
12:11 PM

(A) $USD
DOJI in the monthly chart indicates a interim top for $USD. Since Sept. 21-22 is FOMC ( interest rate decision), I am anticipating the $USD is pulling back till Sept-Oct time frame. Risk is on for the time being. However I am viewing this as a bear market rally and it may only last for two months. Potential the general markets may crash this upcoming Oct since there are many uncertainties:
(1) the upcoming US mid term election - It appears the Dem will lose the house and potential the Senate too.
(2) the ongoing proxy war between the G7 countries and anti G7 countries
(3) the decoupling of G7 from anti G7 countries
(4) capital loss season
(5) potential global recession
(6) the arm race to military power
(7) the race for nuclear power
........





(B) Last week many stocks, sectors either marginally broke out or on the verge to break out. With $USD pulling back, the odds favors the breakout to the upside. Green stocks such as solar, uranium are out performing the others.
I am only including a few charts here:











(C) Global Markets - $MSWORLD, DAX

[rogerklam]

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/micron- ... 01062.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/micron- ... 01062.html

- No. That's a very good point. I'll even note this too. If you go into the Yahoo Finance platform and you look at the stats or the valuation multiples that Micron's trading at, five times for earnings. Now, on a relative basis, that's well below the market multiple. Perhaps your first thought is this is a cheap stock. But when you hear a company out here warning this significantly about margins, profits, and sales, you will quickly realize that cheap may not be cheap enough.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canopy-grow ... -1.1786108

Canopy Growth crumbles on deal to swap debt for shares, cash

https://www.greatpanther.com/news-media ... -in-mexico

Great Panther Announces Agreement to Sell the Guanajuato Mine Complex and Topia Mine in Mexico

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/recessi ... o-q3-.html

Recession fears flare and June jobs report looms as jittery markets head into third quarter

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... update-192

Summary
Long term – on SELL signal.
Short term – on sell signals.
Gold sector cycle is down.
$$$ We are now holding trading positions as no core positions should be held during a long term sell signal.

07-03-2022
10:49 AM
Cash is king right now. Markets are insane, how low is low ?
Bad news keep piling up, it seems there is no ending for the bear markets. Luckily bear markets are much shorter than bull markets. Are we there yet ? I do expect many companies are lining up for chapter 11 and financing would be difficult under this type of environment.

(A) Weeds
Lower lows, lower highs and there is no sign of bottoming.


(B) GDXJ/SILJ
SILJ is at long term support, potential bounce here. I do anticipating it will break down from the support line and capitulate.


GDXJ approaching major long term support, buying around $25 would be rewarding.


(C) $VIX
$VIX round bottom pattern. I do anticipating it will spike very hard to form a symmetric pattern.


(D) FXI may have bottomed and back to up trend channels.


(E) $USD
$USD is still bulling, I do anticipate more interest rates increase this year.





(F)$MSWORLD
Still bearish and I do expect it will do down below 1700



Next update - 7th Aug

[rogerklam]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ura-2022-4

Nomura now thinks the Fed will hike rates by 75 basis points in June and July, in one of the fastest tightening cycles ever

Quadruple Witching - 17th June
FOMC - June 14-15

6-5-22
5:50 PM

(A) Daily charts

I am a bear and my view is bias. The bounce so far is non impressive and may be short lived. $VIX is back testing 200D MA while $USD reverses (bulling) along 50D MA. IWM,$CNDX,$TSE (200D MA as first resistance) are very close to resistance.











(B) Weekly charts

For all the parabolic runs, they have to pull back at least to the mean. Since I think this a bear market, sp will fall below the mean.







Next update - 3rd July

[rogerklam]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ke-for-may

Traders Price In Half-Point Rate Hikes at Next Two Fed Meetings
Swap rates for May 4 and June 15 decisions reach thresholds

https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/arti ... e=homepage

China to end regulatory storm over Big Tech and give sector bigger role in boosting slowing economy, sources say

https://www.gold-eagle.com/dollar-pause ... ft-markets

Dollar pause, China economy support pledge lift markets

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... chessboard

Source: Barrons

Missing the forest through the trees, investors fail to realize that some companies have succumbed to the medium-term realities sooner than others. For context, I’ve been bullish on the U.S. economy for some time, and I still am RIGHT NOW. However, with each Fed rate hike and each passing quarter, that will change materially, and so should investors’ optimism.

05-01-2022
11:49 AM

I am bearish with the markets and I am only using my last year profit for speculation. Clearly my view is biased.

$VIX - spike potential stop around 40
$USD - pull back from the triple tops but I do anticipate it will eventually break out from the triple top.
IWM - lower highs, lower lows. The underneath gap acts as support
$CDNX - still in downtrend. Breaking out from the trendline will be bullish
$SMH - lower highs, lower lows. Potential drops to 200-wk MA 172.86
$NDX - lower highs, lower lows. Potential drops to 200-wk MA
SPHQ - lower highs. Potential drops to 200-wk MA
$HUI - back test the breakout/40-week MA 266.35
worst beaten stocks (MJ,PYPL,PTON0 - lower highs, lower lows for weekly chart. Break all lows

Note:- next update will be 1st June.