Monthly Commentary

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Re: Monthly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:47 pm

https://time.com/6221771/stagflation-cr ... l-roubini/
We're Heading for a Stagflationary Crisis Unlike Anything We've Ever Seen
Making matters worse, renewed protectionism (from both the left and the right) has restricted trade and the movement of capital. Political tensions, both within and between countries, are driving a process of reshoring. Political resistance to immigration has curtailed the global movement of people, putting additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and information.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-canada
Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March
The route to the new peak includes increases of 75 basis points this week, 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points in February and March, they said.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/morgan-stan ... -1.1839424
Morgan Stanley's Wilson says end of Fed tightening nearing
https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-chip-b ... -on-china/
US chip ban de facto declaration of war on China?
https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-will-s ... ntum-leap/
US will struggle to stop China’s quantum leap
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article ... e=homepage
US’ hard-line policy on China likely to hold whoever wins midterm elections, say analysts
10-31-2022
7:38 pm

Fed date is 2nd Nov (Wed.) and US midterm election is 8th Nov.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA13AAk4
When are the midterm elections 2022?
After this Wed, the Fed will slow down raising interest rate. Most likely after the US mid term election, we may be seeing the end of the war pretty soon. I am assuming the Republicans at least get the house. However the decoupling from the unfriendly countries is still going on. With a high interest rate, balkanization of the global economy and possibly pandemic this coming winter, it is difficult to be bullish. However the capital loss season is right around the corner, it may be worth to put in some capital for the distress stocks.

(A) $VIX, $USD, Bond Volatility index

DOJI seems to suggest $USD is close to the peak, but it may possibly retest for 2 more times. The support for $VIX is at 22 (gap), so this will be a good spot to short the markets. The bond volatility index is still spiking and how high is high ?

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(B) Small Caps

Still a bounce within a bear market. IWM at lower highs while $CDNX at lower lows.

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(C) FXI

It is still falling but look very attractive. I guess the time to go long is when China ease of its covid-19 policies. JMHO

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The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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Re: Monthly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:22 pm

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Crash- ... er-27-2022
Crash Watch Becomes Crash Warning
As you likely know, the old adage is "don't fight the Fed", so when the Fed tells you that they intend to “inflict losses” and “cause pain”, you should probably take their word for it.
Could it be a swift move through 4.00% on the U.S. ten-year treasury note that does the trick? So far, the markets have been able to shrug off higher nominal rates, but you may recall that it only took a move to 3.25% in 2018 before equity disaster struck. Perhaps a ten-year yield above 4.00% would be a bridge too far this time? Perhaps. Either way, I think we're about to find out.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politic ... e=homepage
Chinese President Xi Jinping warns Communist Party to prepare for ‘great struggles’ ahead

10-02-2022
2:39 PM

(A) US dollar

It is a currency war out there, US$ is winning against all other currencies by wide margin and capitals are flowing back to the US. Now the world is at the mercy of the Fed. I stay bullish on the dollar until the Fed changes its tone from hawkish to dovish. I am anticipate $CAD, $AUD will break the major support while the dollar will reach the double top. Anything can happen before the US mid term election.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/us ... r-AA122DqI
US midterm elections: When are the US midterm elections, how do they work and will they impact President Biden and the 2024 election?
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(B) The Markets

With a prolong proxy war, terrorism acts in the proxy war, unprecedent censors against the non friendly countries, supply chain problem, decoupling from unfriendly nations, energy crisis in Europe, high inflation, civil unrest, covid 19, global recession .... and a high interest rate, the most safe asset is cash earning 4+% a year. Gov't are taking unprecedent extreme actions and are they working ?

Anyway I am anticipating a final capitulation before the bulls return. Investors are still recalling the pains they suffered 2020.

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(C) Area of interest

Weat

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Re: Monthly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Wed Aug 31, 2022 11:08 pm

As of right now, our odds are at 100% (certain) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to raise the target range for the benchmark fed funds rate, from the current 2.25% - 2.50%, to at least 2.75% - 3.00%, at the September 21 ST, 2022 monetary policy meeting, with the U.S. Prime Rate (a.k.a Fed Prime Rate) rising to at least 6.00%, with the possibility of an increase to 6.25%.
http://primerate.fedprimerate.com/2022/ ... %206.25%25.

(A) General markets
First downside target:
IWM 162.78 (2022 low)
SMH- 189.94 (2022 low)
QQQ - 268.76 (2022 low)
SPY - 200WK MA
$TSX - 18169 (2022 low)

The markets in general are lacking liquidity and the bear continue.

Markets should be very volatile going into Sept. 3rd Friday (Triple witching) and 21st Sept.(FOMC)

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(B) Area of interest

U stocks are very attractive and the weekly chart is quite constructive.
$HUI is approaching major support.
MSOS appears bottom at 10.08
Weat is at a long term round bottom pattern
FXI may have bottomed at 26.02 with capitulation volume
Many stocks are deeply depressed and appear in the basing process.

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The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sun Jul 31, 2022 1:11 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -joe-biden
Democrats are certain to lose seats in the midterms. But how many – and why?
Musa al-Gharbi
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-wors ... ns-1722543
Democrats' Worst Case Scenario for the Midterms
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/ ... e=homepage
Lebanon seizes ship carrying ‘stolen’ Ukrainian grain
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... e=homepage
China has nuclear power lead and should sell to the developed world, policy researcher says
https://interestingengineering.com/scie ... o-the-grid
China Powers Up the World’s First Commercial Onshore Small Modular Nuclear Reactor
https://forum.mexicomike.ca/viewtopic.p ... dn#p240249
by Bobwins » Sat Jul 30, 2022 5:57 pm

I recently got interested in Uranium again. It blasted off in late 2020 without me. The U stocks faded this year so about a month ago I bought UUUU, URNM, UEC and LEU. I also bought smaller positions in GLATF and BSENF. I did so after reviewing a bunch of youtube videos presented the bull case for uranium. Obviously the war in Ukraine has turned a spotlight on energy and Uranium is becoming a pretty big part of the story.
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... update-196
Summary

Long term – on SELL signal.

Short term – on mixed signals.

Gold sector cycle is UP.
Fear and Greed Index
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

07-31-2022
12:11 PM

(A) $USD
DOJI in the monthly chart indicates a interim top for $USD. Since Sept. 21-22 is FOMC ( interest rate decision), I am anticipating the $USD is pulling back till Sept-Oct time frame. Risk is on for the time being. However I am viewing this as a bear market rally and it may only last for two months. Potential the general markets may crash this upcoming Oct since there are many uncertainties:
(1) the upcoming US mid term election - It appears the Dem will lose the house and potential the Senate too.
(2) the ongoing proxy war between the G7 countries and anti G7 countries
(3) the decoupling of G7 from anti G7 countries
(4) capital loss season
(5) potential global recession
(6) the arm race to military power
(7) the race for nuclear power
........

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(B) Last week many stocks, sectors either marginally broke out or on the verge to break out. With $USD pulling back, the odds favors the breakout to the upside. Green stocks such as solar, uranium are out performing the others.
I am only including a few charts here:

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(C) Global Markets - $MSWORLD, DAX

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The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:30 am

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/micron- ... 01062.html
- No. That's a very good point. I'll even note this too. If you go into the Yahoo Finance platform and you look at the stats or the valuation multiples that Micron's trading at, five times for earnings. Now, on a relative basis, that's well below the market multiple. Perhaps your first thought is this is a cheap stock. But when you hear a company out here warning this significantly about margins, profits, and sales, you will quickly realize that cheap may not be cheap enough.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canopy-grow ... -1.1786108
Canopy Growth crumbles on deal to swap debt for shares, cash
https://www.greatpanther.com/news-media ... -in-mexico
Great Panther Announces Agreement to Sell the Guanajuato Mine Complex and Topia Mine in Mexico
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/recessi ... o-q3-.html
Recession fears flare and June jobs report looms as jittery markets head into third quarter
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... update-192
Summary
Long term – on SELL signal.
Short term – on sell signals.
Gold sector cycle is down.
$$$ We are now holding trading positions as no core positions should be held during a long term sell signal.
07-03-2022
10:49 AM
Cash is king right now. Markets are insane, how low is low ?
Bad news keep piling up, it seems there is no ending for the bear markets. Luckily bear markets are much shorter than bull markets. Are we there yet ? I do expect many companies are lining up for chapter 11 and financing would be difficult under this type of environment.

(A) Weeds
Lower lows, lower highs and there is no sign of bottoming.
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(B) GDXJ/SILJ
SILJ is at long term support, potential bounce here. I do anticipating it will break down from the support line and capitulate.
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GDXJ approaching major long term support, buying around $25 would be rewarding.
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(C) $VIX
$VIX round bottom pattern. I do anticipating it will spike very hard to form a symmetric pattern.
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(D) FXI may have bottomed and back to up trend channels.
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(E) $USD
$USD is still bulling, I do anticipate more interest rates increase this year.

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(F)$MSWORLD
Still bearish and I do expect it will do down below 1700

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Next update - 7th Aug
The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:09 pm

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ura-2022-4
Nomura now thinks the Fed will hike rates by 75 basis points in June and July, in one of the fastest tightening cycles ever
Quadruple Witching - 17th June
FOMC - June 14-15

6-5-22
5:50 PM

(A) Daily charts

I am a bear and my view is bias. The bounce so far is non impressive and may be short lived. $VIX is back testing 200D MA while $USD reverses (bulling) along 50D MA. IWM,$CNDX,$TSE (200D MA as first resistance) are very close to resistance.

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(B) Weekly charts

For all the parabolic runs, they have to pull back at least to the mean. Since I think this a bear market, sp will fall below the mean.

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Next update - 3rd July
The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sun May 01, 2022 11:56 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ke-for-may
Traders Price In Half-Point Rate Hikes at Next Two Fed Meetings
Swap rates for May 4 and June 15 decisions reach thresholds
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/arti ... e=homepage
China to end regulatory storm over Big Tech and give sector bigger role in boosting slowing economy, sources say
https://www.gold-eagle.com/dollar-pause ... ft-markets
Dollar pause, China economy support pledge lift markets
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... chessboard
Source: Barrons

Missing the forest through the trees, investors fail to realize that some companies have succumbed to the medium-term realities sooner than others. For context, I’ve been bullish on the U.S. economy for some time, and I still am RIGHT NOW. However, with each Fed rate hike and each passing quarter, that will change materially, and so should investors’ optimism.
05-01-2022
11:49 AM

I am bearish with the markets and I am only using my last year profit for speculation. Clearly my view is biased.

$VIX - spike potential stop around 40
$USD - pull back from the triple tops but I do anticipate it will eventually break out from the triple top.
IWM - lower highs, lower lows. The underneath gap acts as support
$CDNX - still in downtrend. Breaking out from the trendline will be bullish
$SMH - lower highs, lower lows. Potential drops to 200-wk MA 172.86
$NDX - lower highs, lower lows. Potential drops to 200-wk MA
SPHQ - lower highs. Potential drops to 200-wk MA
$HUI - back test the breakout/40-week MA 266.35
worst beaten stocks (MJ,PYPL,PTON0 - lower highs, lower lows for weekly chart. Break all lows

Note:- next update will be 1st June.

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The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sat Apr 09, 2022 9:36 am

I am taking a break for a few weeks. Will be back in May.
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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sun Apr 03, 2022 6:21 pm

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman- ... 40683.html
Goldman Sachs warns the dollar is at risk of losing its dominance, and could end up a lesser player like the UK pound
The US' tough sanctions on Russia have raised concerns that countries around the world could try to move away from the dollar.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -to-audits
China Removes Key Hurdle to Allow U.S. Full Access to Audits
https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/articl ... -chongqing
China digital currency: e-CNY rollouts expand to Hangzhou and Chongqing as Chinese central bank seeks broad support for its push to go cashless
04-03-2022
5:43 PM
$VIX is still at higher lows and hop over along 200D MA, General markets are at higher risk. IWM is still working on its way up and looks quite constructive. SMH, QQQ look suspicious and pull back may continue while SPX is quite constructive and on its way to retest the this year top. Some stocks such as ARKK, PAYPL.. beaten down to a very attractive level. FXI potential move back to the long term up trend channels while $HUI would potential break out from the long term resistance. MJ is very attractive at double bottoms with OGI chart at higher lows. Many beaten down stocks are at extreme level and look quite attractive. My favorite sectors are :- Weeds, China, Green, U, Gold/Silver, Nat Gas, Bitcoin, rare earth (not in any particular order).

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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sat Mar 19, 2022 10:36 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/china-s ... kdown.html
China says it will support Chinese IPOs abroad, calls for closure on tech crackdown
03-19-2022
China's stocks were up 30-40% after FXI reached oversold area and DID was up more than 100%+ since the low. IWM bounced from long term support leading to breakout for many small caps such as EV, Clean energy, crypto.. Weed stock GRWG is in breaking out mode and I do anticipate more weed stocks will follow. $HUI pulled back and looking to back test the breakout while ICLN, SMH, QQQ,SPY were breaking out. $AUDUSD broke out with $CADUSD on the verge of breaking out. $VIX is still at higher lows but lower highs.


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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sun Mar 13, 2022 3:28 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/these-c ... se%20stock
China watchers believe this is likely because the Securities and Exchange Commission has identified five U.S.-listed American depositary receipts of Chinese companies (Yum China, BeiGene, Zai Lab, ACM Research and HUTCHMED) for failing to adhere to the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/russia- ... 20sequeeze
Nickel prices double to record $100,000 a ton, trading suspended in London
https://ottawa.citynews.ca/national-new ... lt-5142911
canada-can-help-europe-turn-to-renewables-instead-of-russian-oil
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/us-moves-ban- ... 18619.html
US to ban Russian diamond and vodka imports
03-13-22
2:59 PM
Last week many commodities such as metals, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, green energy, fertilizer, wheat, US dollar.. shot up and paused on Friday. Chinese stock FXI broke down from the uptrend channel and weeds stock are still in bottoming process. Abnormal volume occurred for many small caps stocks.
This week with the Ukraine crisis still going on, FOMC meeting and Quad witching, volatility continue. It is highly possible commodities are going to pull back with US dollar going up. $VIX is still constructive and the General Markets are vulnerable with MJ possibly bottom this week.

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The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sat Mar 05, 2022 8:40 pm

Part 4
Metal

Industrial and base metals are shooting up with copper broke out from consolidation. $PALL is retesting all time high.
GDXJ is catching up with GDX and broke out lately . SILJ is trading above 200D MA Friday and would be catching up.
$PLAT could potentially catching up.

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The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sat Mar 05, 2022 3:59 pm

Part 3
Energy


Euro is in crisis for energy. Even I feel the pain at the pump.
$WTIC and Coal shot up very fast with $WTIC over $100 and ARCH over $140. NATGAS and Uranium may be playing a catch up game.
While clean energy and solar are flagging.

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The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sat Mar 05, 2022 11:42 am

Part Two
Currencies

With Euro funds seeking for safety , the all mighty US dollar is going to benefit. It is quite easy for $USD to exceed 100. JMHO
$AUDUSD is breaking out from the resistance while $CADUSD is right at resistance. Gold is forming a beautiful cup and handle and not even oversold. Silver broker out from the resistance and potentially catch up with gold and break out from the consolidation.
Silver is not oversold.

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The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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Re: Weekly Commentary

Post by rogerklam » Sat Mar 05, 2022 9:29 am

There will be many charts for this week commentary and I will split into different posts.

Part One
General Markets


Crisis is still on for Ukraine with Russian ETF RSX reached decade low and was halted on Friday. Global inflation is more serious and that will impact on worldwide GDP, some sectors such as gold/silver, metals, agriculture products, energy, defense, semi conductors and cyber security may benefit from the crisis and more charts will be presented in different posts.

The world markets excluding US are still correcting without reaching oversold area while China FXI has reached decade major support. China today lowered its GDP target to 5.5 per cent for this year. Euro markets are down to support but not in oversold area and may go further down. Polish ETF EPOL is a disaster and has reached three years major support without reaching oversold area, potentially with more further downside.
Volatility continues for US markets and the markets are still vulnerable for more downside. $CDNX is still flagging.

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The information provided here is only for education purposes. I am not a financial advisor. If you are considering a trade please do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor. I am not liable for your losses.
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