We're Heading for a Stagflationary Crisis Unlike Anything We've Ever Seen
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-canadaMaking matters worse, renewed protectionism (from both the left and the right) has restricted trade and the movement of capital. Political tensions, both within and between countries, are driving a process of reshoring. Political resistance to immigration has curtailed the global movement of people, putting additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and information.
Goldman Sachs Now Sees Fed Rates Peaking at 5% in March
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/morgan-stan ... -1.1839424The route to the new peak includes increases of 75 basis points this week, 50 basis points in December and 25 basis points in February and March, they said.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-chip-b ... -on-china/Morgan Stanley's Wilson says end of Fed tightening nearing
https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-will-s ... ntum-leap/US chip ban de facto declaration of war on China?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article ... e=homepageUS will struggle to stop China’s quantum leap
10-31-2022US’ hard-line policy on China likely to hold whoever wins midterm elections, say analysts
Fed date is 2nd Nov (Wed.) and US midterm election is 8th Nov.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA13AAk4
After this Wed, the Fed will slow down raising interest rate. Most likely after the US mid term election, we may be seeing the end of the war pretty soon. I am assuming the Republicans at least get the house. However the decoupling from the unfriendly countries is still going on. With a high interest rate, balkanization of the global economy and possibly pandemic this coming winter, it is difficult to be bullish. However the capital loss season is right around the corner, it may be worth to put in some capital for the distress stocks.When are the midterm elections 2022?
(A) $VIX, $USD, Bond Volatility index
DOJI seems to suggest $USD is close to the peak, but it may possibly retest for 2 more times. The support for $VIX is at 22 (gap), so this will be a good spot to short the markets. The bond volatility index is still spiking and how high is high ?
(B) Small Caps
Still a bounce within a bear market. IWM at lower highs while $CDNX at lower lows.
It is still falling but look very attractive. I guess the time to go long is when China ease of its covid-19 policies. JMHO