Weekly Commentary

[rogerklam]

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/micron- ... 01062.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/micron- ... 01062.html

- No. That's a very good point. I'll even note this too. If you go into the Yahoo Finance platform and you look at the stats or the valuation multiples that Micron's trading at, five times for earnings. Now, on a relative basis, that's well below the market multiple. Perhaps your first thought is this is a cheap stock. But when you hear a company out here warning this significantly about margins, profits, and sales, you will quickly realize that cheap may not be cheap enough.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canopy-grow ... -1.1786108

Canopy Growth crumbles on deal to swap debt for shares, cash

https://www.greatpanther.com/news-media ... -in-mexico

Great Panther Announces Agreement to Sell the Guanajuato Mine Complex and Topia Mine in Mexico

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/recessi ... o-q3-.html

Recession fears flare and June jobs report looms as jittery markets head into third quarter

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... update-192

Summary
Long term – on SELL signal.
Short term – on sell signals.
Gold sector cycle is down.
$$$ We are now holding trading positions as no core positions should be held during a long term sell signal.

07-03-2022
10:49 AM
Cash is king right now. Markets are insane, how low is low ?
Bad news keep piling up, it seems there is no ending for the bear markets. Luckily bear markets are much shorter than bull markets. Are we there yet ? I do expect many companies are lining up for chapter 11 and financing would be difficult under this type of environment.

(A) Weeds
Lower lows, lower highs and there is no sign of bottoming.


(B) GDXJ/SILJ
SILJ is at long term support, potential bounce here. I do anticipating it will break down from the support line and capitulate.


GDXJ approaching major long term support, buying around $25 would be rewarding.


(C) $VIX
$VIX round bottom pattern. I do anticipating it will spike very hard to form a symmetric pattern.


(D) FXI may have bottomed and back to up trend channels.


(E) $USD
$USD is still bulling, I do anticipate more interest rates increase this year.





(F)$MSWORLD
Still bearish and I do expect it will do down below 1700



Next update - 7th Aug

[rogerklam]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ura-2022-4

Nomura now thinks the Fed will hike rates by 75 basis points in June and July, in one of the fastest tightening cycles ever

Quadruple Witching - 17th June
FOMC - June 14-15

6-5-22
5:50 PM

(A) Daily charts

I am a bear and my view is bias. The bounce so far is non impressive and may be short lived. $VIX is back testing 200D MA while $USD reverses (bulling) along 50D MA. IWM,$CNDX,$TSE (200D MA as first resistance) are very close to resistance.











(B) Weekly charts

For all the parabolic runs, they have to pull back at least to the mean. Since I think this a bear market, sp will fall below the mean.







Next update - 3rd July

[rogerklam]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ke-for-may

Traders Price In Half-Point Rate Hikes at Next Two Fed Meetings
Swap rates for May 4 and June 15 decisions reach thresholds

https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/arti ... e=homepage

China to end regulatory storm over Big Tech and give sector bigger role in boosting slowing economy, sources say

https://www.gold-eagle.com/dollar-pause ... ft-markets

Dollar pause, China economy support pledge lift markets

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold ... chessboard

Source: Barrons

Missing the forest through the trees, investors fail to realize that some companies have succumbed to the medium-term realities sooner than others. For context, I’ve been bullish on the U.S. economy for some time, and I still am RIGHT NOW. However, with each Fed rate hike and each passing quarter, that will change materially, and so should investors’ optimism.

05-01-2022
11:49 AM

I am bearish with the markets and I am only using my last year profit for speculation. Clearly my view is biased.

$VIX - spike potential stop around 40
$USD - pull back from the triple tops but I do anticipate it will eventually break out from the triple top.
IWM - lower highs, lower lows. The underneath gap acts as support
$CDNX - still in downtrend. Breaking out from the trendline will be bullish
$SMH - lower highs, lower lows. Potential drops to 200-wk MA 172.86
$NDX - lower highs, lower lows. Potential drops to 200-wk MA
SPHQ - lower highs. Potential drops to 200-wk MA
$HUI - back test the breakout/40-week MA 266.35
worst beaten stocks (MJ,PYPL,PTON0 - lower highs, lower lows for weekly chart. Break all lows

Note:- next update will be 1st June.

[rogerklam]

I am taking a break for a few weeks. Will be back in May.

[rogerklam]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman- ... 40683.html

Goldman Sachs warns the dollar is at risk of losing its dominance, and could end up a lesser player like the UK pound

The US' tough sanctions on Russia have raised concerns that countries around the world could try to move away from the dollar.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -to-audits

China Removes Key Hurdle to Allow U.S. Full Access to Audits

https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/articl ... -chongqing

China digital currency: e-CNY rollouts expand to Hangzhou and Chongqing as Chinese central bank seeks broad support for its push to go cashless

04-03-2022
5:43 PM
$VIX is still at higher lows and hop over along 200D MA, General markets are at higher risk. IWM is still working on its way up and looks quite constructive. SMH, QQQ look suspicious and pull back may continue while SPX is quite constructive and on its way to retest the this year top. Some stocks such as ARKK, PAYPL.. beaten down to a very attractive level. FXI potential move back to the long term up trend channels while $HUI would potential break out from the long term resistance. MJ is very attractive at double bottoms with OGI chart at higher lows. Many beaten down stocks are at extreme level and look quite attractive. My favorite sectors are :- Weeds, China, Green, U, Gold/Silver, Nat Gas, Bitcoin, rare earth (not in any particular order).

[rogerklam]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/china-s ... kdown.html

China says it will support Chinese IPOs abroad, calls for closure on tech crackdown

03-19-2022
China's stocks were up 30-40% after FXI reached oversold area and DID was up more than 100%+ since the low. IWM bounced from long term support leading to breakout for many small caps such as EV, Clean energy, crypto.. Weed stock GRWG is in breaking out mode and I do anticipate more weed stocks will follow. $HUI pulled back and looking to back test the breakout while ICLN, SMH, QQQ,SPY were breaking out. $AUDUSD broke out with $CADUSD on the verge of breaking out. $VIX is still at higher lows but lower highs.

[rogerklam]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/these-c ... se%20stock

China watchers believe this is likely because the Securities and Exchange Commission has identified five U.S.-listed American depositary receipts of Chinese companies (Yum China, BeiGene, Zai Lab, ACM Research and HUTCHMED) for failing to adhere to the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/russia- ... 20sequeeze

Nickel prices double to record $100,000 a ton, trading suspended in London

https://ottawa.citynews.ca/national-new ... lt-5142911

canada-can-help-europe-turn-to-renewables-instead-of-russian-oil

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/us-moves-ban- ... 18619.html

US to ban Russian diamond and vodka imports

03-13-22
2:59 PM
Last week many commodities such as metals, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, green energy, fertilizer, wheat, US dollar.. shot up and paused on Friday. Chinese stock FXI broke down from the uptrend channel and weeds stock are still in bottoming process. Abnormal volume occurred for many small caps stocks.
This week with the Ukraine crisis still going on, FOMC meeting and Quad witching, volatility continue. It is highly possible commodities are going to pull back with US dollar going up. $VIX is still constructive and the General Markets are vulnerable with MJ possibly bottom this week.

[rogerklam]

Part 4
Metal
Industrial and base metals are shooting up with copper broke out from consolidation. $PALL is retesting all time high.
GDXJ is catching up with GDX and broke out lately . SILJ is trading above 200D MA Friday and would be catching up.
$PLAT could potentially catching up.

[rogerklam]

Part 3
Energy

Euro is in crisis for energy. Even I feel the pain at the pump.
$WTIC and Coal shot up very fast with $WTIC over $100 and ARCH over $140. NATGAS and Uranium may be playing a catch up game.
While clean energy and solar are flagging.

[rogerklam]

Part Two
Currencies
With Euro funds seeking for safety , the all mighty US dollar is going to benefit. It is quite easy for $USD to exceed 100. JMHO
$AUDUSD is breaking out from the resistance while $CADUSD is right at resistance. Gold is forming a beautiful cup and handle and not even oversold. Silver broker out from the resistance and potentially catch up with gold and break out from the consolidation.
Silver is not oversold.

[rogerklam]

There will be many charts for this week commentary and I will split into different posts.

Part One
General Markets

Crisis is still on for Ukraine with Russian ETF RSX reached decade low and was halted on Friday. Global inflation is more serious and that will impact on worldwide GDP, some sectors such as gold/silver, metals, agriculture products, energy, defense, semi conductors and cyber security may benefit from the crisis and more charts will be presented in different posts.

The world markets excluding US are still correcting without reaching oversold area while China FXI has reached decade major support. China today lowered its GDP target to 5.5 per cent for this year. Euro markets are down to support but not in oversold area and may go further down. Polish ETF EPOL is a disaster and has reached three years major support without reaching oversold area, potentially with more further downside.
Volatility continues for US markets and the markets are still vulnerable for more downside. $CDNX is still flagging.

[rogerklam]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ne-for-now

The West each day continues to buy hundreds of millions of dollars worth of resources from Russia, indirectly financing the Ukrainian crisis.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/politics ... index.html

But Biden has also been very clear on another point: US troops will not be sent to Ukraine to take part in the conflict.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60514228

Russian forces seize Chernobyl nuclear power plant

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/russian ... upply.html

Russian invasion of Ukraine to further strain U.S. chip supply for auto, tech industries

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1253130.shtml

Update: Chinese Embassy in Kiev prepares to bring back Chinese nationals amid escalating Ukraine-Russia crisis

2-26-22

This week is all about Ukraine, it is very difficult to predict short term movement. The whole week is quite volatile and the robots trade in perfection (with the aid of zero commission). Metal futures expired Thurs added in further volatility.

(A) Russian/Polish stocks

RSX, POLY.L were down to major support and may be bottom here. EPOL was also down to major support and may go down further.







(B) General Market
General markets bounced with investors speculator in natural gas, chips, materials, u sectors. $ViX is still in higher lows and the markets are still vulnerable. $HUI/GDX potential peak here and the breakout from the downtrend is non decisive.

[rogerklam]

Since I am still expecting a low during March-Apr time frame, I am using the daily charts for short term movement.
$VIX is at higher highs and higher lows, this indicates the markets are potentially going to the south. Proceed with cautious with the upcoming March quad witching. JMHO
GDX and $HUI marginally broke out this week with $WTIC still in topping process and close to major resistance around $100. Metal futures such as Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper futures rollover this coming Thurs. Gold miners would potentially pull back next week.

(A) Potential death cross
SMH,SPHQ,$NDX,DRIV,$INDU

(B) Death cross
LIT,IHI

(C) Death cross with potential bear flag
$SML,$MID,URA,$CDNX,IWM,BLOK,$RLX

(D) Golden cross
$VIX, COPX

(E) Potential Golden cross
GDX,$PLAT,LVS(resort),$HUI

(F) Daily charts

[rogerklam]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/12/pentago ... raine.html

Pentagon orders departure of U.S. troops in Ukraine as Russia crisis escalates

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/us-says-russi ... 52502.html

US says Russia could invade Ukraine 'any day now,' diplomacy is ongoing: What we know

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ru ... uxbndlbing

russia-accuses-us-of-propaganda-campaign-about-ukraine-invasion/

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business- ... f-top-aide

Ukraine sees no point closing airspace amid Russia standoff -top aide

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine- ... -tazvinzwa

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky: The best friend of our enemies is panic

There are so many news regarding Ukraine, they are subject to individual interpretation.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/vid ... 510864.cms

india-us-japan-and-australia-meet-stoking-confrontation-says-china

02-13-22
10:55 AM

$VIX spiked on last Thursday and continue on Friday because of potential war in Ukraine, people are speculated in gold, base metals and energy sectors. This type of speculation is usually short lived. JMHO
$SML, $MID, SPHQ, SMH are in lower highs, lower low and $VIX is still uptrend. I am still expecting General markets low in March-Apr time frame.

[rogerklam]

02-06-22
8:20 PM
General Markets bounced last week and it seems there is enough energy to get higher. However the worst performance stocks such as weed stocks, stay home stocks such as ROKU,PTON... and others like CAR, GME... are still seeking the bottom. Small caps and mid caps are not reaching low enough and I think they will at least back test the breakout. The high quality SP 50 ETF could potentially resume the bull trend and need to be closely monitored. $VIX can bounce anytime with $USD potentially heading to 200D MA (divergence). There are conflict signals but all in all I am still expecting the low in March-April time frame and I won't make my move until the dead cross occur in $VIX.